How our match preview dey work

Where di data dey come from

Fixtures, results and league tables dey come from football-data.org. For di biggest matches, we dey add team news, confirmed line-ups and independent prediction from API-Football when e dey available.

How di model dey work

Every team get attack rating and defence rating from di goals wey dem score and concede dis season, compared to di league average, and recent matches carry more weight. For early season, we dey pull di ratings near average so few results no go shake dem too much. For European competitions, di ratings start from how di club dey do for dia own league, adjusted for how strong dat league be.

From rating to chances

Di ratings give each team di number of goals wey we expect. We turn am to chance of every score (Poisson model wit di usual correction for low scores), den we add dem together to get chance of win, draw and loss, chance of 3 goals or more, and chance say both teams go score. When oda predictions dey, di final chances na weighted mix.

When preview dey show and expire

We dey publish preview 72 hours before kick-off and e dey update by im self as new information land, including line-ups about one hour before di match. Once di match start, e go comot from di front page, and when di result land, e go turn short recap so you fit check our track record.

Read am wit sense

Dis analysis na for information and enjoyment. Football no dey predictable: team wey get 60% chance still dey fail to win 4 times out of 10. Nothing for dis site na financial or betting advice.