How our match previews work

Where the data comes from

Fixtures, results and league tables come from football-data.org. For the biggest matches we also add team news, confirmed line-ups and an independent statistical prediction from API-Football when available.

How the model works

Each team gets an attacking and a defensive rating from its goals scored and conceded this season, compared with the league average and weighted towards recent games. Early-season numbers are pulled towards average so a few results do not swing the ratings too far. In European competition, ratings start from each club's domestic form, adjusted for league strength.

From ratings to probabilities

The ratings give each side an expected number of goals. We turn those into the probability of every scoreline (a Poisson model with a standard correction for low scores), then add them up into win, draw and loss chances, the chance of three or more goals and the chance that both teams score. Where other forecasts are available, the final win probabilities are a weighted blend.

When previews appear and expire

A preview is published 72 hours before kick-off and refreshed automatically as new information arrives, including line-ups about an hour before the game. At kick-off it leaves the front page, and once the result is in it becomes a short recap so you can check our track record.

Please read responsibly

This is analysis for information and entertainment. Football is unpredictable, and a 60% favourite still fails to win four times in ten. Nothing on this site is financial or betting advice.